Boomergedden: Senior Citizens as a Percent of Population in Herkimer County

This graphic shows the projected rise of senior citizens (people age 65 and older) in Herkimer County. The projections are from the Cornell University Program on Applied Demographics. The historical data comes from the US Census decennial counts. Some have referred to this movement of Baby Boomers into the ranks of senior citizenry as "Boomergedden".

Click on the graphic to enlarge it.

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The New Us: Portrait of a Changing America

The Atlantic Magazine recently reviewed a new report by PEW Research which provides a portrait of some very significant demographic and cultural shifts in the United States. The report is filled with fascinating details about who we are as Americans, what we believe, and how both of those things have changed over the last several decades.

As they point out, "Demographic transformations are dramas in slow motion. America is in the midst of two right now. Our population is becoming majority non-white at the same time a record share is going gray. Each of these shifts would by itself be the defining demographic story of its era. The fact that both are unfolding simultaneously has generated big generation gaps that will put stress on our politics, families, pocketbooks, entitlement programs and social cohesion."

Here's is one of their graphics about minority population changes in the past 50 years, as well as its projected growth for the next fifty.

 To see how Utica and Rome minority populations have changed since 1980, visit this blog's MAPS page ! The minority population maps are near the bottom.

Population Counts, Estimates, and Projections: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Most people are familiar with the traditional decennial census counts. Those are the numbers that come out, once every 10 years, as a result of the Constitutionally mandated census efforts. These have taken place since 1790, and will next occur in the year 2020. People, policymakers and businesses all look forward to the census counts as a way to see where we are, and how we've changed over the last decade. They also use these numbers for reapportionment of our legislative districts.

However, the decennial census counts aren't the only population numbers that get bandied about. In the non-decennial census years people often pay close attention to the population estimates, which get released annually. Each year, the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP) utilizes current data on births, deaths, and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census. Over the course of the years between decennial censuses, they produce a time series of estimates of population. The annual time series of estimates begins with the last decennial census year and extends to the vintage (i.e. most recent) year. These numbers are generally seen as indications of where we are and where we're headed.

A third sort of population number that draws attention are population projections. While anyone can put together a population projection, many in New York turns to the projections done by Cornell University's Program of Applied Demographics (PAD). The projections done by PAD are in 5 year intervals and currently project to 2040. The projections are based upon rates of change estimated from historic data. This means that the projections reflect what would happen if the rates of population growth and decline stay as they were. The projections are not meant to be forecasts; forecasts are predictions of future conditions while these projections are meant to gain insight into what might happen if the future looks like the past.

For our region, these three versions of our past, and our future, are a sort of mixed bag - they are much like the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

The Good may be the decennial census counts. These can be considered "good" in that they are very accurate, generally speaking. The tremendous effort needed to identify housing units, and count the people in those units, provides very accurate numbers when it comes to our population counts. The chart below shows you the census counts for the Herkimer-Oneida Counties region from 1970 to the most recent census done in 2010.

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The Bad are the Population Estimates. They are bad, and that is a relative term, in that they appear to be consistently underestimating our population. Looking at the blue dotted line on the chart below, you can see that in about 1994, right through the Census in 2010, the estimates (based on the ninth vintage year in each cycle - 1999 and 2009 estimates) have consistently underestimated our population by around two percent. Some would maintain that two percent is negligible from a statistical standpoint; of course to the degree that these estimates impact federal or state formulas for funding, or business location decisions, that statistical distinction is anything but negligible.

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The Ugly comes down to the population projections, in this case those offered by PAD. While not arguing the methodology, the projections, as they note, are not forecasts - they assume that nothing in the future is different from anything in the past. And in the case of the past, they may or may not take into account special issues or circumstances for our region, such as the impact of the Mohawk Valley Resource Center for Refugees. Regardless, the projections see the last decade's population stabilization as fleeting and would suggest a continuing (and even accelerating) decline of population for the region in the future.

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In reality these are very different measures, with very different assumptions. But they are the numbers that are often used to define our region.

Animated US Population Changes and Projections: From 1900 to 2060

Bill McBride at Calculatedriskblog.com created an “animation of the U.S population distribution, by age, from 1900 through 2060,” demonstrating the gradual aging of the US population. In his words, “In 1900, the graph was fairly steep, but with improving health care, the graph has flattened out over the last 100 years. ...Watch for: 1) the original baby bust preceding the baby boom (the decline in births prior to and during the Depression). Those are the people currently in retirement. 2) the Baby Boom is obvious. 3) By 2020 or 2025, the largest cohorts will all be under 40.”

Below are the 1900 and the 2060 population distributions from McBride. To see how we got from one to the other, click here and watch the animation for some of the things mentioned above .

1900 Population Distribution

2060 Population Distribution

Population Projections: The Program on Applied Demographics at Cornell

I get a fair number of requests from people for population projections. Unfortunately, while we do occasionally dabble in these, the efforts we make remain unofficial. The State of New York, which has provided such things in the past, also doesn't have any "official" population projections. At present, the best place to probably look for this type of data is through the Program on Applied Demographics (PAD) at Cornell University.

PAD offers a variety of excellent data services and analysis, and works closely with both the Census Bureau and the NYS Census Data Affiliate Network. One of the things that they offer are population projections for every county in New York. The most recent version of their projections run through the year 2040, and offer breakdowns by age groupings, by sex, and by sex by age groupings.

Below are the two counties' population pyramids - basically a graphic representation of their population age distributions broken out by sex. The initial one in each series reflects the most recent census data from 2010. The successive pyramids are from PAD's projections for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040. Clicking on each will enlarge it to make it easier to see.

Herkimer and Oneida County Population Pyramids (click each to enlarge)

Herkimer County 2010 Census	Herkimer County 2020 Projection	Herkimer County 2030 Projection	Herkimer County Projection
Oneida County 2010 Census	Oneida County 2020 Projection	Oneida County 2030 Projection	Oneida County 2040 Projection

To see the actual data associated with each of these pyramids, be sure to visit the PAD population projection page.