Monday, September 29, 2014

Determining Fiscal Stress of Municipal Entities in 2013

The New York State Comptrollers Office recently released a report on their Fiscal Stress Monitoring System for various municipal entities across New York State. They also have a website where you can search for these municipal entities by name, etc. at http://wwe1.osc.state.ny.us/localgov/fiscalmonitoring/fsms.cfm.

The object of the monitoring system is to help New York State local officials deal with fiscal challenges and to identify clearly those local governments and school districts that are moving towards, or are already in, fiscal stress. Such monitoring of the fiscal health of local governments and school districts should allow for early actions to prevent these entities from ending up in severe fiscal stress. The preventive actions – ideally developed with active participation from citizens who will be affected − should result in less cost and less disruption to vital services.


The Fiscal Stress Monitoring System evaluates local governments (counties, cities, towns and villages)and school districts based on both financial and environmental indicators. The financial indicators will be calculated using financial data that is filed in annual update documents (AUDs) by each local government and in annual financial reports (ST-3s) for school districts. A score will be calculated for each financial indicator to arrive at an overall score for each local government and school district, which will then be used to classify whether the unit is in “significant fiscal stress,” “moderate fiscal stress,”is “susceptible to fiscal stress,” or “no designation.” 

Below are the stress scores for entities from Herkimer and Oneida Counties. For a full explanation of the scores visit the Comptroller's link above.

Herkimer County

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Oneida County

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The website will also give you a full fiscal self assessment of each municipal entity if you click on their scores.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Another Single Year "What Herkimer County Might Look Like" Table on Housing

Yesterday I posted a piece about what Herkimer County's single year demographic data might look like IF SUCH A PIECE WERE DONE BY THE CENSUS BUREAU.

Single year estimates are restricted to areas of 65,000 population or more for statistic reasons. Herkimer County, having a population of less than 65,000 therefore doesn't get single year estimates. They have to wait until the three year estimates are released (October 23rd) to get new information.

Given that the MSA is the combination of Herkimer AND Oneida Counties, and given that we have Oneida Counties numbers on their own, it is PLAUSIBLE to simply subtract Oneida County from the MSA and then you'd be left with what is essentially a Herkimer County Single Year Estimate.

Without getting into a discussion of all the statistical reasons THIS IS PROBLEMATIC, let me again offer the following:

THE DATA BELOW IS NOT A PRODUCT OF THE US CENSUS BUREAU AND DOES NOT REPRESENT A STATISTICALLY SOUND PROCESS FOR DETERMINING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION OF HERKIMER COUNTY. 

HOWEVER, IT IS A MATHEMATICALLY ACCURATE  REFLECTION OF THE UTICA ROME MSA MINUS THE ONEIDA COUNTY DATA FOR THE 2013 SINGLE YEAR ESTIMATES. 

THE RESULTS ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE REMAINING AREA, NAMELY HERKIMER COUNTY.

So with that in mind here is are housing related data that MAY reflect what the three year official estimates will look like in about a month from now. Please view them with this in mind!


Thursday, September 25, 2014

What Herkimer County's 2013 Single Year Estimates MIGHT Look Like...

...if such a beast were produced.

The single year releases of American Communities Survey (ACS) estimates are done ONLY for communities or municipal entities with a population of 65,000 or more. For our region, that means Oneida County gets to see single year estimates, since their population is in excess of 230,000. Similarly the Utica-Rome MSA (which is comprised of Herkimer County and Oneida County combined) also gets to see single year estimates. Herkimer County, unfortunately, falls just a few hundred people short of qualifying for single year data. Instead they have to wait an additional month for the Three Year Estimates to come out before they get a chance to see how they may have changed in the past couple years.

WITH GREAT TREPIDATION, I have taken it upon myself to at least take a look at what the Herkimer County SINGLE year data MIGHT look like IF SUCH A THING EXISTED. It doesn't. But that doesn't mean it can't be inferred.

Given that the MSA is the combination of Herkimer AND Oneida Counties, and given that we have Oneida Counties numbers on their own, it is PLAUSIBLE to simply subtract Oneida County from the MSA and then you'd be left with what is essentially a Herkimer County Single Year Estimate.

Without getting into a discussion of all the statistical reasons THIS IS PROBLEMATIC, let me just offer the following:

THE DATA BELOW IS NOT A PRODUCT OF THE US CENSUS BUREAU AND DOES NOT REPRESENT A STATISTICALLY SOUND PROCESS FOR DETERMINING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION OF HERKIMER COUNTY. 

HOWEVER, IT IS A MATHEMATICALLY ACCURATE  REFLECTION OF THE UTICA ROME MSA MINUS THE ONEIDA COUNTY DATA FOR THE 2013 SINGLE YEAR ESTIMATES. 

THE RESULTS ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE REMAINING AREA, NAMELY HERKIMER COUNTY.

I would urge caution with these numbers and use them simply as a means for anticipating what the three year estimates, to be released October 23rd, might show us. Below are some of the basic demographic data for what COULD be the Single Year Estimates of Herkimer County.


Tuesday, September 23, 2014

A Comparison in Oneida County: 2013 versus 2010 American Community Survey Data

Recently the Census Bureau released data for the 2013 American Communities Survey (ACS) One Year Estimates. Oneida County, as an entity with a population of more than 65,000 people, is part of this release. While I posted the 2013 standard profiles of the county, the true value of the ACS lies in the ability to see if we have changed over the last several years, instead of waiting ten years for the next decennial census to be done.

Below are several comparisons of data from 2010 and 2013. Unless noted, all data show statistically significant increases or decreases between the 2010 and 2013 one year estimates. These are generally the pieces of data that have shown some change from 2010 to 2013. There are plenty of other data pieces that can be looked at - but in most cases what you see in the 2013 data in those cases is not statistically different than what was found in 2010. So below you can find most of the data pieces that appear to have changed over the last several years at least.



Racial Changes: We continue to see growth in the minority population in Oneida County.






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Elderly Population: The elderly population has grown by some 2,000 people over the last three years; there is no statistical changes in terms of the percent of elderly in poverty.


   

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Housing Tenure: There is significantly more rental housing units in 2013 than there were in 2010, and a significant decrease in housing units occupied by home owners. In addition, there is a significant increase in one bedroom housing units as well.


 
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Income and Poverty: Median Household Income, as well as Per Capita Income, has declined from 2010 to 2013. Poverty rates for families remains steady but for individuals has increased.



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Marital Status and Families: Fewer males and females are married as of 2013 than there were in 2010. The percent of families made up of married couples has dropped while the percent of single parent families has increased significantly.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

2013 Single Year ACS Data Released for Oneida County

Each year, the Census Bureau releases three versions of the American Communities Survey (ACS). These are the 1-Year, the 3-Year, and the 5-Year ACS Estimates. These are released based on the population size of the municipality. Five year estimates are released for EVERY level of census geography (down to the block group level) as well as every municipality (think town, city, and village). Three year estimates are only released for geographies or municipalities with a MINIMUM population of 20,000 persons. So many smaller villages and towns are excluded. One year estimates are released for municipalities with a MINIMUM population of 65,000. This means they are mostly for counties and larger cities. For our region, ONLY ONEIDA COUNTY HAS SINGLE YEAR ESTIMATES AVAILABLE.

The most recent 1-Year Estimates are now a permanent part of this blog in the linked area just below the title above. A permanent link will take you to the most recent 1 year estimates post so you can always easily find this important data for both Oneida Counties !

Below are the individual links to the Demographic, Social, Economic and Housing Profiles for the 1 Year ACS Estimates for Oneida County.


2013 Oneida County ACS 1 Year Demographic Profile

2013 Oneida County ACS 1 Year Social Profile

2013 Oneida County ACS 1 Year Economic Profile

2013 Oneida County ACS 1 Year Housing Profile

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Single Year 2013 ACS Data to be Release on Thursday, September 18th

Data collected in 2013 from the nation’s most comprehensive survey will be released in less than 2 days, on Thursday, September 18th,  The one year estimates of the 2013 American Communities Survey (ACS) provides statistics on more than 40 demographic, social, economic and housing topics. Some of the topics covered include income, poverty, health insurance, educational attainment, the commute to work, the foreign-born population, language spoken at home, ancestry, occupation, number of vehicles available and housing costs.

These statistics will be available for the nation, all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, every congressional district and all counties, places and metropolitan areas with populations of 65,000 or more. For our region that includes the county of Oneida, as well as the Utica- Rome MSA (which is the combination of Herkimer and Oneida Counties).

I will try to get the basic profiles up as soon as I can on Thursday, followed by some analysis of areas of change sometime shortly after that !

Monday, September 15, 2014

2014 State and Federal Petroleum Taxes for the US and New York


 The American Petroleum Institute (API) is the only national trade association that represents all aspects of America’s oil and natural gas industry. Our more than 600 corporate members, from the largest major oil company to the smallest of independents, come from all segments of the industry. They are producers, refiners, suppliers, pipeline operators and marine transporters, as well as service and supply companies that support all segments of the industry.




The American Petroleum Institute was established on March 20, 1919:

  • to afford a means of cooperation with the government in all matters of national concern
  • to foster foreign and domestic trade in American petroleum products
  • to promote in general the interests of the petroleum industry in all its branches
  • to promote the mutual improvement of its members and the study of the arts and sciences connected with the oil and natural gas industry. 
Recently I see that they have an interactive map on the API site of the US comparing gasoline taxes between states. A static version of the map appears below.

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 In addition, they provide a state breakdown if you click on any of the states on that map. Below is the NYS gas tax breakdowns.

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Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Visualizing In and Out Migration Within NYS For Herkimer and Oneida Counties

Just a couple graphics that might help you get perspective on the in- and out-migration of NYS residents to (and from) Herkimer and Oneida Counties.

Migration INTO Herkimer County

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Migration INTO Oneida County 

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Migration OUT OF Herkimer County

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Migration OUT OF Oneida County

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Monday, September 8, 2014

Geographic Mobility: 2012 Five Year ACS County to County Migration Flows

The American Community Survey (ACS) asks respondents age 1 year and over whether they lived in the same residence 1 year ago. For people who lived in a different residence, the location of their previous residence is collected. The ACS then uses a series of monthly samples to produce estimates. The 5-year ACS data set is used for the county-to-county migration flows since many counties have a population less than 20,000. The first 5-year ACS data set covers the years 2005 through 2009, and the most recent one covers 2009 to 2012.

Below are two maps, focused mainly on New York State, which shows the net migration flow from county to county for both Herkimer and for Oneida Counties.

Herkimer County Net Flow

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Oneida County Net Flow

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In addition, here are the top five counties FROM WHICH, and TO WHICH, population flows for both Herkimer and Oneida Counties. These are provided for counties within New York as well as for those in other parts of the country as well. 

 





If you're interested in the full listing of County to County flows for either Herkimer or Oneida County, email me and I will provide them !

Friday, September 5, 2014

A Look at the Golden Years: Characteristics of Retirees in the Region

While a recent article about the best and worst cities to retire to wasn't particularly kind to the northeast, some still choose to stay in our region once they make the decision to retire. While a myriad of factors are to be considered, our region still has much to offer its older citizens.

Who, however, are those among us that have entered into their Golden Years and chosen to remain locally?

Well, the 2012 ACS Five Year Estimates for PUMS data does allow us to get at least a little insight into who are retirees are. First however, I needed to figure out how to extract at least a reasonable estimation of what a retiree is from the data. For purposes here, the following is basically who I looked at in order to gain insight into the characteristics of retirees.


So as the graphic points out, I took the population of people age 62 or older (typical minimum age for social security access) and then selected anyone who reported receiving a pension or retirement annuity, or that received social security retirement benefits as either a primary recipient or as a survivor.

While the definition is NOT perfect, it does capture a large number of people that certainly are in retirement mode. In fact, 85% of all people age 62 or older are included in this definition - some 37,000 out of about 43,000 people in this age category.

Roughly 60% of all "retirees" are still married, but about a quarter have no surviving spouse - they are widows and widowers.

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As a result, it's not surprising then that 56% of retirees are females.


Racially and ethnically, the retirees are not wholly reflective of the current racial configuration within the region - they are more in line with the racial distribution of their own day, 40 to 50 years ago. Whites make up the vast majority of those retiring in the region - around 86% of all retirees are white. Black retirees are the next largest group, at 11%. Very few other minority races are represented in the retirement crowd. This is mainly the result of their lack of presence in the past within our region. Similarly, only 2% of all retirees see themselves as Hispanic. While at present the Hispanic community makes up more than 4% of the region's population, their influx is a relatively new phenomena, hence fewer Hispanics are nested within the retirement cohort.


Educationally, retirees are a reasonably well educated group. More than a quarter of them have some type of college degree, and one in five have a bachelor's or higher.


As the "Greatest Generation" passes, the current "Baby Boomers" are not without their military experience. More than a quarter of all retirees have served in some capacity in the armed services.

Of course as we age we face many hurdles, some of which are truly disabling. These can include visual issues, mobility issues, hearing and cognitive issues, as well as a host of other conditions. More than one out of every three retirees reported being disabled to some extent.

Similar to the racial and Hispanic retirees, foreign born residents make up a slightly smaller part of the pie among retirees than they do in the current general population. Given the influx of recent refugees to our region this is not particularly surprising.


Slightly more than 5% of retirees are foreign born, and about 6% speak a language other than English while at home. Most are in fairly stable housing settings, with only one out of twenty (5%) having lived somewhere else one year ago.

Retirement, of course, is largely based on your ability to afford it.

According to the ACS data, each retiree averages an income of about $37,000 in the region. This is composed of a variety of income sources of course, two of which are typically a pension or annuity, and social security retirement benefits. Roughly 17,000 retirees (or about 40% of people age 62 and over) drawn from a pension or a retirement annuity or IRA. And nearly 35,000 retirees (or 81% of those age 62+) are receiving Social Security Retirement benefits. Combined, taking into account those that receive both a pension and social security, 36,951 retirees access these income resources.

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Of course there are other potential resources such as personal savings, reverse mortgages, etc., that retirees might also be using to fund their retirement plans.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

School District Profiles: An Example Using the Herkimer Central School District

One of the things that is relatively easy to get from the ACS is data on school districts. The typical four profiles are available (Demographic, Economic, Social and Housing) and can be saved and printed as pdfs.

Below I've put together an infographic comparing some of the data from the Herkimer Central School District (HCSD) profiles with those of the county as whole. Perhaps someone would find similar data of use for their local district. You can click the image to enlarge it for easier reading.

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