Driving Boom or Bust: The Decline of Annual Driving Miles Per Capita

According to a report recently released by USPIRG.com, after sixty years of almost constant increases in the annual number of miles Americans drive, Americans have decreased their driving per-capita for eight years in a row. Since 2004, driving miles per person are down especially sharply among Millennials, America’s largest generation that will increasingly dominate national transportation trends.

 

Some skeptics have suggested that the apparent end of the Driving Boom might be just a temporary hiccup in the trend toward more driving for Americans. By the time Americans took notice of the decline in driving, the economy was in deep recession. For some, the culprit behind this decline was the poor economy of the last several years.

So the question became, would economic growth bring back rapid increases in driving?

This study finds that declining rates of driving do not correspond with how badly states suffered economically in recent years. On the contrary:

• Among the 23 states in which driving miles per person declined faster than the national average, only six saw unemployment increase faster than the nation as a whole.
• Among the 10 states with the largest declines in driving per person, only two rank among the ten with largest increases in unemployment.
• Among the 23 states where driving declined faster than the national average, only 11 saw faster-than-average declines in the employed share of their working-age population.
• Among the 10 states with the greatest reductions in the employed share of population, only two were also among the ten states with the largest reductions of driving (Georgia and the District of Columbia)

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Their conclusion then? In the view of USPIRG researchers, the evidence suggests that the nation’s per capita decline in driving cannot be dismissed as a temporary side effect of the recession. While certainly a contributing factor and an economic rebound could be expected to have some upward lift on driving, the recession does not appear to be the prime cause of the fall off in driving over the past eight years. Nor is it clear that future economic growth would lead to a resumption of the postwar Driving Boom. Policy makers can stop wondering whether American driving trends are changing. They should focus carefully on these trends, and start adapting policies to match them.

Miles and Miles of Transportation Data

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), a part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (USDOT) Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), presents State Transportation Statistics 2012, a statistical profile of transportation in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This is the tenth annual edition of the State Transportation Statistics, and a companion document to the National Transportation Statistics (NTS), which is updated quarterly on the BTS website.

Like the previous editions, this document presents transportation information from RITA/BTS, other federal government agencies, and other national sources. A picture of the states’ transportation infrastructure, freight movement and passenger travel, system safety, vehicles, transportation related economy and finance, energy usage and the environment is presented in tables covering the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

May is National Bike Month

With Summer upon us, many people will begin riding their bikes to work, as well as other places. After all, the good people at the League of American Bicyclists have designated May as National Bike Month. In fact, next week is Bike to Work Week (May 13-17) and Bike to Work Day is Friday, May 17.

In addition to Nation Bike Month, the League is also a supporter of  the Bicycle Friendly America (BFA) program. The program provides incentives, hands-on assistance, and award recognition for communities, universities and businesses that actively support bicycling. In addition, the BFA’s Bicycle Friendly State Program ranks states annually based on their level of bike-friendliness. States receive feedback, technical assistance, training and further encouragement to improve their bicycling legislation, projects, and programs. To see how New York State ranks nationally, click on the chart below.

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The American Communities Survey (ACS) tells us quite a bit about those who bike to work in our area. While the data for bicyclists is combined with those that take motorcycles and those that ride taxis, it still suggests some interesting patterns among those that take these non-traditional means to work. Here are just a few of the things you can find out about those who bicycle to work in our region from the ACS:

• While not very many people use bikes to get to and from work, the local use rate is about half of what the New York State rate is (one half a percent of the workforce in NYS bike to work versus a quarter of a percent of the workforce in the Herkimer-Oneida Counties region).
• While most of those that ride bikes to work are between the ages of 25 to 44, slightly more young people ride bikes regionally (20% of those under the age of 25) than do young people across the state (15% of those under the age of 25 in the state).
• About 8% of the local workforce over the age of 16 that ride bikes to work are foreign born. And about 7% of bike riders speak some other language than English.
• Almost half of all bike riders in our region (44%) live in households where the income level is less than $25,000.
• Persons who ride their bikes to work in our area are almost three times as likely to live in poverty than those that use other means of getting to work (16.4% of bike riders versus 5.9% of all others).
• The three most common types of work settings that bike riders head to are: manufacturing jobs; education, health care and social assistance jobs; and arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food service jobs.
• More than a quarter of those that ride their bikes to work head to local, state or federal government jobs.
• The peak period when bike riders head to work is between 7 and 7:30 A.M.; the second busiest time for people biking to work is from 6 to 6:30 A.M.
• Almost half  (45%) of all people who bike to work spend less than 15 minutes pedaling to the job. Another 30% spend between 15 minutes and half and hour. But nearly 10% spend more than an hour biking to work when they ride.
• One third of all bike riders are renters.
• While a quarter of all people who bike to work have no other vehicle in the household, 55% report that they have multiple vehicles available at home. 

 These and other statistics from the ACS can be found by using the American Fact Finder at the US Census Bureau website.

Back to the Future: Retrospective Census Data

Often times data lays dormant for years, or in some cases decades, with little or no comprehensive review being undertaken to place current information in any historical context. One of the most sought after, but often underutilized, resources of such time series data is the U.S. Commerce Department’s decennial census.

The ability to readily create wide ranging reviews of the various components of the decennial census has been limited by (a) the questions included in the census itself, and (b) the ability to access and store such information in a manner that makes it readily assessable.With the advent of the American Communities Survey, the data is even more accessible, and accessible on an annual basis!

After the 2000 Census, the regional planning office did a retrospective report on census data for both Herkimer and Oneida Counties. To see each one in its entirety click here for Oneida County's report, or here for the Herkimer County version. 

These reports involved data from as long ago as the 1950 census, although much of it was limited to only going back as far as 1960 or 1970.  These limitations were due largely to the introduction of new concepts (such as poverty) or a change in the basic definitions and collection of data on an issue, such as race. Sometimes, issues were only able to be examined in a broad context, such as white versus non-white populations. But there were many topics in which the data did allow for direct comparison over several decades with little change in how the data was collected or coded.

Data was presented in five chapters dealing with the following issues – aging; families and family structures; income and poverty; race, ethnicity, and nativity; and workforce and education. Within each were a variety of subtopics and ancillary issues. In each chapter, a review of data from the Census 2000 was included and followed by a historical review of the last 50 years (or whatever level of historical context exists depending upon the topic). 

The office is in the process of revamping the report, adding in data from the Census 2010, as well as the 2010 American Communities Survey (ACS). While the process will take some time, it will be good to add the most recent "decennial based" data to continue this longitudinal look at our region and how it has changed.

The two tables below give a small example of the types of data that can be looked at. In this case there are separate graphics for Herkimer and Oneida Counties dealing with where residents of each county go to work, as well as how they travel to and from work. These graphics show you the percent of workers who lived in, and also worked in, each county for both the 1960 Census as well as the Three Year Estimates for the 2010 ACS. They also show the percentage that worked in NYS counties other than Herkimer or Oneida. This comparison is then followed by information showing the 1960 and 2010 comparisons for the mode of transportation to work of employees, including the percentages that drove a car, took public transportation, or walked to work. 

Hopefully more of such retrospective comparisons can be made as we look back to our future!

Click to Enlarge Herkimer County Data

Click to Enlarge Oneida County Data