Showing posts with label retrospective. Show all posts
Showing posts with label retrospective. Show all posts

Friday, May 9, 2014

2010 Oneida County Retrospective: Income and Poverty (Part 2)


Income Measures: Changes in income on the family, household and per capita levels have been considerable over the last 50 years. Income, in all of its various measures, has grown dramatically, increasing by more than 8  times over what it was in 1960. Per capita income, for example, has gone from a level of about $2,000 in 1960 to more than $25,000 in 2010.

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Family Income Quintiles: Income growth over the last fifty years wasn’t necessarily uniform among all members of the county.  Looking at changes in the growth of family income by quintile can shed some light onto some of these disparities. Even for the lowest quintile, income growth has been significant since 1960. While the mid-value of the lowest family income quintile was around $2,400 in 1960, by the year 2010 it had risen to nearly $17,000. 


There has been, in fact, substantial income growth for all of the county’s families since 1960. As suggested above, Oneida County families in the lowest quintile have seen their income grow by more than 700% over the last 50 years. In comparison those families comprising the top two quintiles have had income growth of 1100% over the same period. 

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Friday, May 2, 2014

2010 Oneida County Retrospective: Income and Poverty (Part 1)

Income and Poverty in Oneida County 2010


Of the many measures of how well a community is doing economically, income and poverty are two of the most common indicators of economic health.

Income Measures: Income is generally measured in three ways within the census data: household income, family income, and per capita income. Each measures three very different things. Household data measures the cumulative income of all those people within a housing unit; family income reflects the income earned by a family unit’s members; and per capita income is the total cumulative income of a geographical area divided evenly by the total number of all the persons, regardless of age, living there.(Note: For purposes of this report, income levels for 2010 are based on the 2012 Five Year ACS data, using the 2010 year as a midpoint of this grouped data set).

As a general matter, median family income tends to be higher than median household income. In comparison, per capita income is lower than either family or household income. This is understandable given that every person is included in its calculation, including those not earning income such as children, the elderly, or the infirmed. According to the ACS 2012 Five Year Estimates, median household income was about $49,148 in Oneida County. Median family income, on the other hand, was $62,232. Per capita income was around $24,890.

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Family Income Quintiles: Income quintiles are another way to look at family income. They provide information about the lowest, as well as the highest, income brackets within Oneida County. Each grouping represents a fifth of the families in the county. Looking at the income ranges of each quintile provides insight into the income level needed for a family to move upward to a higher income group. For example, among those in the bottom quintile, a family would have to earn in excess of $28,662 to move from the “low” income class to a “lower-middle” income class. “Middle” income class families, in comparison in Oneida County, earn basically from $51,729 to as much as $84,729. Families in the middle class would need to earn close to $85,000 to move up a bracket. To be part of the upper most quintile, or “upper” income class, a family would have to earn in excess of $112,000. 


Tuesday, April 29, 2014

2010 Oneida County Retrospective: Our Families and Family Structures

Families and Family Structures in Oneida County in 2010

  • More than three quarters of all families have two parents present in the home
  • Less than half of all families have children under the age of 18 in the home
  • More than 21,000 people have experienced either divorce or marital separation

Populations in Families: According to the 2012 ACS 5 Year Estimates, there are more than 179,000 people living in 57,897 family units in Oneida County. Some additional 40,328 people lived within 33,603 non-family units. Additionally, 14,290 people were in group quarters in 2010.


Family Structures: As a percentage of families, the two-parent family represents the vast majority of all family structures in Oneida County. About 73% of all families are comprised of this more traditional family structure. Female-headed families (with no male present) are the next most common in Oneida County. One in five families (20%) are female-headed. Male-headed families (with no female present) made up about 7% of all familial units.

Children in Families: As a general rule in Oneida County, families with children are less common than those without. Less than half of all families (43%) have children under the age of 18 residing in the family household. This is especially true among more traditional, couple-based families. Less than two out of every five two-parent families (38%) have children living at home with them. Single-parent families (male- or female-headed, with no spouse) are far more likely to have children at home. Three out of every five (60%) female headed families have children 18 or younger living in the home, while 52% of all single dad headed families have young children at home.

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Monday, April 28, 2014

2010 Oneida County Retrospective: Our Aging Population

Aging of Oneida County Population in 2010

  • Median age is above 40 years old for first time
  • About one in six people are age 65 or older
  • Preschool aged youth only make up about 6% of population

The advance of the “baby boom generation” among age cohorts continues to influence the “graying” of the population within Oneida County. With the current median age at 40.6 years old, the baby boom population transition from young adulthood to middle age continues to be felt. More than half (57%) of the county’s population is between the age of 20 and 65. In addition, almost one out of every six residents (16%) is age 65 or older. About one out of every five people (22%) in Oneida County is under the age of 18. The county’s youngest cohort, those under age 5, make up less than 6% of the total population.

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Historical Aging Trends in Oneida County 1950 - 2010

  • Median age grows with "graying" of baby boomers
  • Elderly females driving overall median age of all females to more than 40 years old
  • Elderly males growing in number faster than females

Median Age: The median age of Oneida County residents has changed considerably over the last 60 years. This change has not, however, simply been one of a stagnantly aging population. As a matter of fact, the median age of the population actually declined for a period of twenty years, from 1950 to 1970.  During those 20 years the median age dropped from 32.9 in 1950 to 29.0 in 1970. After 1970, the median age began to climb, rising to the Census 2010 level of 40.6 years of age.

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Baby Boom Influence: Much of this change in median age is a result of the introduction, and the aging, of what has been called the “baby boom” generation. The movement of baby boomers from youth to working age adults to those entering the retirement age can be tracked rather easily over the last half of the 20th century by following their movement through a series of simple population pyramids.

Boomers first begin showing up as a population influence in the 1950s. They basically comprise the youngest members of the county, those who were age 5 and younger. In Chart 3 you can see the very beginning of the largest generational shift in our country's history beginning to make itself known in the local data. By the time of the 1980 Census, the Baby Boom Generation is now generally between 15 and 35, young workers (Chart 4). Over the next thirty years the bugle in the population pyramid representing the baby boomers shifts closer to retirement age. In 2010 the leading edge of the generation reaches 65, as seen in Chart 5 below.

Back to the Future2: The Release of the 2010 County Retrospectives



Often times data lays dormant for years, or in some cases decades, with little or no comprehensive review being undertaken to place current information in any historical context. One of the most sought after but often underutilized resources of such time series data is the decennial census. In December of 2004, the Herkimer Oneida Counties Comprehensive Planning Program released a report on the last 50 years of census related data for both Herkimer and Oneida Counties.

The time has come for the re-release of this series, updated with data from 2010. Given changes to the decennial census, the data source for much of this comparison now comes from the American Communities Survey, or the ACS. The ACS is NOT the equivalent of the decennial census. It is a very different vehicle for data collection. However, to the degree possible, comparative data will be offered.

Such a review of data is, by the very nature of such time constrained data collection, and the introduction of a new source of data (the ACS), of fraught with pitfalls. Changing definitions, as well as the nature of the data collection process itself, often conspire to make many comparisons the equivalent of mixing apples with oranges. As the social constructs of race, poverty, aging, etc., all evolve to better, or perhaps at least different, levels of understanding over the years, the ability to make comparisons with past data becomes tricky, perhaps difficult, and even impossible at times.

These report will attempt to recognize those potential issues and bring them to light. They will involve data collected since the 1950 census through the 2012 ACS Five Year Estimates. In many cases, in terms of the historical sections of each chapter, the data may only extend back to 1960 or 1970 until the 2012 ACS. Much of that is due to the introduction of new concepts (such as poverty) or a change in the basic definitions and collection of data on an issue, such as race. Sometimes, issues are only able to be examined in a broad context, such as white versus non-white populations. But there are many topics in which the data does allow for direct comparison over several decades with little change in how the data was collected or coded.

Still, it is important to strongly urge that each of the data sets be examined in terms of the subtleties of the definitions for each topical issue. Efforts have been made to be sure to compare like items when possible, and to note potential problem areas. All of the included analysis provides at least a loose sketch of the immediate historical past, and, at best, a more thorough review of some of the changes being experienced within Oneida County over the last fifty to sixty years. 

These reports are not intended as an assessment of demographic trends in the last half of the 20th century in either county. Rather they are more of a simple review of what has occurred. While a plethora of other topics could have been included, few have enough historical context (i.e. data available) to make them readily reviewable. As a result, this report focuses on five topics: aging, families, income/poverty, nativity/race, and employment.

Expect to see these chapters released here in the next several weeks (one will be later today!). Oneida County's chapters will be released first and then Herkimer County's will follow. 

Monday, April 29, 2013

Back to the Future: Real Income Changes, 1970 to 2010



This look at our regional income levels is a precursor to a more in-depth look that will hopefully be part of the next Herkimer County and Oneida County Retrospective Report. Written after the release of Census 2000 data, these previous reports involved a review of data from as long ago as the 1950 census, although much of it was limited to only going back as far as 1960 or 1970.  These limitations were due largely to the introduction of new concepts (such as poverty) or a change in the basic definitions and collection of data on an issue, such as race. Sometimes, issues were only able to be examined in a broad context, such as white versus non-white populations. But there were many topics in which the data did allow for direct comparison over several decades with little change in how the data was collected or coded.

One of these was income. Income is generally measured in three ways within census data: household income, family income, and per capita income. Each measures three very different things. Household data measures the cumulative income of all those people within a housing unit; family income reflects the income earned a family unit’s members; and per capita income is the total cumulative income of a geographical area divided evenly by the total of all the persons living there. As a general matter, median family income tends to be higher than median household income. In comparison, per capita income is lower than either family or household income. This is understandable given that every person is included in its calculation, including those not earning income (or having very low incomes) such as children, the elderly, or the infirmed.

The tables below show each of these measures of income since 1970 for each county. In addition, each measure of income is also reported based on its adjusted inflationary value to the year 2010. This comes from use of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This allows for a more accurate view of real income changes over time. 

Click to Enlarge Herkimer County Data

Click to Enlarge Oneida County Data


So for example, the median household income in 1970 for Oneida County $8,555; by 2010, the median household income had increased to $47,257. In 2010, this represents an increase of more than five times what a household made forty years ago! But that simple view of income doesn’t give the reader the whole story. When inflation is taken into account, the amount the median household earned in 1970 ($8,555) is actually the equivalent of $50,009 in 2010 dollars. So in reality the 2010 median income level of households in Oneida County appears to less than it was in 1970, based on the rate of inflation.

Of course, the region has undergone considerable economic challenges during this time frame and not all of it has been equally spread out by decade. Taking a further glance at household income data also shows us how the period between 1970 and 1980 was one of the most difficult for people. Real household income (that is to say inflation adjusted income) in both Herkimer and Oneida Counties dropped considerably over that period – a more than 17% decline in Herkimer County and almost a 10% decline in Oneida County. It continued to drop between 1980 and 1990 in Herkimer County (-3.7%) while it saw a modest gain in Oneida County (+2.5%). In the following decade (1990 to 2000) Herkimer County saw some household income growth (+6.2%), but it all but disappeared for Oneida County residents (+0.1%). Finally, over the last 10 years, Oneida County has seen a slight increase in real income (+2.2%) while in Herkimer County it has remained practically unchanged (-0.2%). To get a better visual of these patterns, click on the chart below.

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These are the types of analysis we anticipate incorporating  into our next retrospective for the region. If you have questions about this project or have a specific topic you’d like to see covered, please drop me a line at dmiller@ocgov.net .

Friday, April 26, 2013

Back To The Future: Our Changing Workforce Characteristics

As an ancillary post to one I recently did on Where We Work and How We Get There, I wanted to add to that "look back at our future" with some data on changes in the workforce itself. Below are a couple graphics covering the percentage of the total county population in the civilian workforce, as well as the rise in female and college educated workers in both Herkimer and Oneida Counties. Click on either to enlarge the graphic for a better look at how we've changed over the last 50 years.


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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Back to the Future: Retrospective Census Data



Often times data lays dormant for years, or in some cases decades, with little or no comprehensive review being undertaken to place current information in any historical context. One of the most sought after, but often underutilized, resources of such time series data is the U.S. Commerce Department’s decennial census.

The ability to readily create wide ranging reviews of the various components of the decennial census has been limited by (a) the questions included in the census itself, and (b) the ability to access and store such information in a manner that makes it readily assessable.With the advent of the American Communities Survey, the data is even more accessible, and accessible on an annual basis!

After the 2000 Census, the regional planning office did a retrospective report on census data for both Herkimer and Oneida Counties. To see each one in its entirety click here for Oneida County's report, or here for the Herkimer County version

These reports involved data from as long ago as the 1950 census, although much of it was limited to only going back as far as 1960 or 1970.  These limitations were due largely to the introduction of new concepts (such as poverty) or a change in the basic definitions and collection of data on an issue, such as race. Sometimes, issues were only able to be examined in a broad context, such as white versus non-white populations. But there were many topics in which the data did allow for direct comparison over several decades with little change in how the data was collected or coded.

Data was presented in five chapters dealing with the following issues – aging; families and family structures; income and poverty; race, ethnicity, and nativity; and workforce and education. Within each were a variety of subtopics and ancillary issues. In each chapter, a review of data from the Census 2000 was included and followed by a historical review of the last 50 years (or whatever level of historical context exists depending upon the topic). 

The office is in the process of revamping the report, adding in data from the Census 2010, as well as the 2010 American Communities Survey (ACS). While the process will take some time, it will be good to add the most recent "decennial based" data to continue this longitudinal look at our region and how it has changed.

The two tables below give a small example of the types of data that can be looked at. In this case there are separate graphics for Herkimer and Oneida Counties dealing with where residents of each county go to work, as well as how they travel to and from work. These graphics show you the percent of workers who lived in, and also worked in, each county for both the 1960 Census as well as the Three Year Estimates for the 2010 ACS. They also show the percentage that worked in NYS counties other than Herkimer or Oneida. This comparison is then followed by information showing the 1960 and 2010 comparisons for the mode of transportation to work of employees, including the percentages that drove a car, took public transportation, or walked to work. 

Hopefully more of such retrospective comparisons can be made as we look back to our future!

Click to Enlarge Herkimer County Data

Click to Enlarge Oneida County Data