Changes in Median Age For White and Minority Populations

Over the last decade our median age in the region has risen, having gone from 39.7 years of age 10 years ago to 42.1 in 2014. Much of this is driven by an aging white, non-Hispanic population. Among whites, the median age over the period from 2005 to 2014 rose from 40.7 to 44.8 years of age. Conversely, the minority population (meaning anyone who is not white, Non-Hispanic) has actually gotten younger over the past 10 years. Among minorities, the median age has dropped from 28.7 years of age to 26.2. As this portion of our population grows (minorities now make up about 15% of our population compared to 10% a decade ago) this younger influence will probably begin to influence our median age statistics.

The graph below shows you how these two populations' median ages have changed in our area between 2005 to 2014. Click to enlarge the graphic.

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Median Age for Occupations in the Region (2013)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released  detailed occupation and age data . This included breakdowns of the median age of various occupational groups. Below is similar data I found in the PUMS data for our region (Herkimer and Oneida Counties combined). Note how few occupations have a median age of less than 40 or over 50 !

To enlarge this time line click the graphic below.

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Differences in Median Age Based on Race in Herkimer County

Median ages for men and women by racial identity...

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Oneida County Towns and Cities Median Ages

Last week I posted a piece about median ages in Herkimer County towns and the City of Little Falls. Here is the same data for Oneida County towns and cities. Note that I didn't put the numbers on the graph for the upper and lower bounds of the 90% confidence interval just to reduce the amount of visual clutter in contains. To see the actual confidence intervals you can look at the table at the bottom to see the actual numbers.

Several things stand out about the data. The median age for the county as a whole is 40.6 years of age in the 2011 five year ACS estimates. Based on that, two municipalities clearly have populations whose median age is significantly less than the county's. The first is the Town of Augusta, at 35.1 years old. The second is the City of Utica, at 35.2 years of age. In both cases, given their 90% confidence intervals, these two municipalities' populations are are statistically younger than the rest of Oneida County.

On the other side of the equation, we find significantly older populations in the following towns or cities: Forestport (52.3 years old), Marshall(45.2 years old), New Hartford(46.3 years old), Paris(46.4 years old), Sherrill(45.1 years old), Vienna(44.5 years old), Western(46.9 years old), and Westmoreland(43.7 years old).

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Town and City Median Ages in Herkimer County

So recently I have been posting about the various generational typographies and what life was like for each of the last three generations when they hit the age of 25. An undeniable truth is that our region is getting older!  Of course so is the rest of the country...it’s the aging of the Baby Boomers that’s presently driving our median age higher and higher among other things.

Of course when we hear that the current median age for Herkimer County is 42.0 years of age, we tend to think of that as being evenly distributed around the area. And generally speaking, that perception is fairly accurate. However, the distribution of our population based on age isn’t quite homogenous as one may think.

The graph below shows the median age for each of the towns as well as the city of Little Falls in Herkimer County. Each of the municipalities is shown with their median age (43.0, for example, for the Town of Columbia in Herkimer County) and then a 90% confidence interval has been depicted around that median age based on the margins of error supplied through the American Communities Survey. So in the case of the Town of Columbia, you can see that while the estimated median age is 43.0, we are 90% confident, based on the sampling, that the actual figure (if we were to survey 100% of the Town) would be between 46.3 and 39.7 years of age. Basically this is the same as saying that the estimated median age for Columbia is 43 years of age, +/- 3.3 years.

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So this same process has been used to look at all of the towns and as well as the City of Little Falls. So what does this tell us about the distribution of the population based on their median age then?

Well, in Herkimer County several things stand out. Three towns have populations that are considerably different from the county as a whole – namely the Town of German Flatts, the Town of Little Falls, and the Town of Webb.

German Flatts has a comparatively small confidence interval, spanning only +/- 1.4 years. In addition, German Flatts falls significantly below the median age of the rest of the county at 39.0 years versus the county median age of 42.0. This would suggest that German Flatts has a statistically younger population than the rest of the county.

In much the same way as German Flatts is younger than the rest of the county, the Town of Little Falls is significantly older than other parts of Herkimer County. Again, comparing the Town’s median age of 46.7 to the County’s 42.0, even with the Town’s median age confidence interval of +/-3 years of age, Little Falls is statistically older than the rest of the county.

The clear outlier, however, is the Town of Webb! The median age in the Town of Webb is 57.9 years of age – nearly 16 years higher than the counties. No other municipality even falls within the range of its 90% confidence interval (it stretches from 52.5 years of age to 63.3). Undoubtedly this has to do with many things unique to the Town, including its attraction to retirees.

Here's a table that gives the median age, upper and lower bounds of the 90% confidence interval and, for each town and the City of Little Falls in Herkimer County. Note on the above graph which places over lap and which do not !

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