Thursday, September 25, 2014

What Herkimer County's 2013 Single Year Estimates MIGHT Look Like...

...if such a beast were produced.

The single year releases of American Communities Survey (ACS) estimates are done ONLY for communities or municipal entities with a population of 65,000 or more. For our region, that means Oneida County gets to see single year estimates, since their population is in excess of 230,000. Similarly the Utica-Rome MSA (which is comprised of Herkimer County and Oneida County combined) also gets to see single year estimates. Herkimer County, unfortunately, falls just a few hundred people short of qualifying for single year data. Instead they have to wait an additional month for the Three Year Estimates to come out before they get a chance to see how they may have changed in the past couple years.

WITH GREAT TREPIDATION, I have taken it upon myself to at least take a look at what the Herkimer County SINGLE year data MIGHT look like IF SUCH A THING EXISTED. It doesn't. But that doesn't mean it can't be inferred.

Given that the MSA is the combination of Herkimer AND Oneida Counties, and given that we have Oneida Counties numbers on their own, it is PLAUSIBLE to simply subtract Oneida County from the MSA and then you'd be left with what is essentially a Herkimer County Single Year Estimate.

Without getting into a discussion of all the statistical reasons THIS IS PROBLEMATIC, let me just offer the following:

THE DATA BELOW IS NOT A PRODUCT OF THE US CENSUS BUREAU AND DOES NOT REPRESENT A STATISTICALLY SOUND PROCESS FOR DETERMINING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION OF HERKIMER COUNTY. 

HOWEVER, IT IS A MATHEMATICALLY ACCURATE  REFLECTION OF THE UTICA ROME MSA MINUS THE ONEIDA COUNTY DATA FOR THE 2013 SINGLE YEAR ESTIMATES. 

THE RESULTS ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE REMAINING AREA, NAMELY HERKIMER COUNTY.

I would urge caution with these numbers and use them simply as a means for anticipating what the three year estimates, to be released October 23rd, might show us. Below are some of the basic demographic data for what COULD be the Single Year Estimates of Herkimer County.